OTTAWA, Canada — With new tariffs taking effect Tuesday, analysts contend that if Canada's Liberal Party maintains power, the party owes President Donald Trump a measure of credit for such a turnabout in fortunes.
Since Trump took office, Canada's official opposition Conservative Party – previously the governing Liberals' wide-margin front-runner – has watched their popularity in public-opinion polls decline steadily.
A poll by Ipsos, released last week, revealed that, for the first time since the Liberals took the last federal election in 2021, they are two points ahead of the Conservatives with 38% popularity versus the Conservatives at 36%. Six weeks prior, the Conservatives were 26 points ahead of the Liberals. A general election is to be called as early as this spring by Trudeau's replacement, to be named on Sunday.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, explained to Fox News Digital that he has never witnessed a party plummet so quickly and dramatically in his four decades of polling.
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Canada Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a news conference in a hotel ballroom in Ottawa on Dec. 1, 2024. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP)
He credits two reasons with the decline of the Conservatives.
Justin Trudeau, whose own popularity has fallen drastically since he became Canada's 23rd prime minister in 2015, will resign as leader of the Canadian government and Liberal Party on March 9; "And the threat from Trump to use economic force on Canada to bend us to his knee and possibly absorb us as a 51st state," said Bricker, of the president's intended tariffs on Canada and his ongoing mentions of annexation.
During February, Nanos Research observed the gap close between the Conservatives and Liberals, who in the previous month were on the cusp of building a "super-majority" government with up to 240 members of Parliament (MPs) in a larger 343-seat House of Commons that becomes effective after the next general election.
"That's totally out the window now," said Nik Nanos, the founder and chief data scientist at the Canadian polling company, who also credits Trudeau's near-departure and Trump's bombast against Canada with giving the Liberals their boost in the polls.
The president "has effectively reframed the ballot question from: Is it time for a change? – which was bad news for the Liberals – to who can best manage Donald Trump, the new existential threat to the Canadian economy?" provided Nanos.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, officially announced his bid for the federal Liberal Party leadership in Edmonton, Canada, on Jan. 16, 2025. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
He said that Canadian Conservative Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party were partially responsible for the Liberals' increase by "indicating they were a bit behind the times" in prioritizing the Liberal government's carbon-pricing tax and promising to take it out when Canadians grew anxious about Trump's threats.
"In retrospect, when the Conservatives had a 27-point lead in our polls, it had nothing to do with Pierre Poilievre being popular or well-liked, or the Conservatives being clever strategists," said Nanos. "It had everything to do with dislike of Justin Trudeau and folks wanting change and the Conservatives being the change agent."
A total of 86% of 1,000 asked in the Ipsos poll reported that they are calling for an immediate general election to get a federal government "with a strong mandate" to address Trump's tariff threat.
Bricker opined that the Liberals' lead in the polls, especially in Ontario and Quebec, Canada's most populous provinces, over the Conservatives may even expand if Mark Carney, a former governor of England's and Canada's central banks and Liberal leadership frontrunner, takes over from Trudeau as prime minister.
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President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office on Feb. 25, 2025. (Pool)
Veteran Canadian pollster Angus Reid stated that his company's most recent polling revealed 51% said Carney and the Liberals were best placed to enhance relations with the U.S., including tariffs, while 35% opted for the Conservatives under Poilievre, who is viewed by many Canadians as having a "Trump-light agenda."
From south of the border, the president has "eroded Conservative support because it totally shifted the political dynamic in Canada, totally shifted what arguably was the most significant ballot question that was all about ridding the country of some of the baggage of the Trudeau era," said Reid, founder and chair of the Angus Reid Institute.
"Now it's one of defending the sovereignty and economy of the country."
Another Angus Reid poll indicated that with Carney as Liberal leader, his party is effectively tied at 44% with the Conservatives, at 45% in voting intention. In Quebec, a Liberal Party led by Carney has 31% backing compared to 22% for the Conservatives.
Guests display a giant Canadian flag before a flag-raising ceremony on Feb. 15, 2025, in Toronto. (Yu Ruidong/China News Service/VCG via AP)
Reid added the annexation and tariffs issue particularly resonates with Quebecers more than any other province in Canada.
Carney's additional challenge for Poilievre is that the former "on paper, looks like a Conservative," according to Nanos.
"The guy worked in the banking industry and private industry, such as Goldman Sachs, and led, until recently, big firms such as Bloomberg and Brookfield [Asset Management]. He walks and talks like a Conservative."
Carney, an Oxford-trained economist who has never served in elected office, is likely to order a snap election if he is selected to replace Trudeau.